NFP: Hiring to slow in December after outsized November gain – Wells Fargo

Analysts at Wells Fargo look for the pace of nonfarm hiring to slow in December, with employers adding 150K jobs. The report will be released on Friday at 13:30 GMT. 

Key Quotes: 

“Secondary labor market indicators continue to suggest a slower pace of hiring in 2020. Layoffs rose in December, though they remain low and consistent with a tight labor market. Job openings, however, have rolled over and small business hiring plans remain below last year’s level.”

“Although we expect the pace of hiring to slow, the unemployment rate should remain steady at its 50-year low of 3.5%.”

“The tight labor market should continue to translate into modest wage growth. We expect average hourly earnings rose 0.2% in December, which would suggest a modest drop in the year-ago rate to 3%.”

“This week’s report will incorporate revisions to the past five years of the seasonally adjusted household survey data. Starting in January, the household survey data will reflect the introduction of the 2018 Census occupational classification system and the 2017 Census industry classification system.”

“Nonfarm payroll growth should average 190K in the fourth quarter, in-line with the Q3 pace. Looking ahead, we expect job gains to slow markedly in 2020, though hiring for the 2020 Census will likely disrupt the quarterly estimates.”