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Forex Flash: Europe set for a deeper than expected recession - Nomura

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Nomura economists believe that fiscal tightening, financial deleveraging and sovereign debt market tensions should lead to a deeper-than-expected recession.

They believe that the previous OMT announcement reduced the probability of Spain calling for an ECCL soon, but they still believe it will happen eventually. Looking to markets, after a period of relative calm, the team believe that the backstop will be tested and the pressure should rebuild around weak sovereigns. In terms of GDP contraction, they see that higher non-performing loans and rising debt trajectories remain the key euro area challenges.

They write, “Because we forecast a weak economic backdrop, we retain our bias for lower ECB rates (in June). We expect inflation to be sticky in the UK, albeit back in the right ballpark, but to slip below target during 2013 in the euro area. The BoE aggressively announced QE, liquidity and funding support in 2012. We see a bias toward doing more in 2013.”

Forex Flash: BoJ easing supporting renewed risk taking behaviour - BTMU

Lee Hardman, FX analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that the yen has continued to weaken in the Asian trading session with USD/JPY moving to within touching distance of the psychologically important 100-level.
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CORRECTION Forex: USD/JPY falls towards 99.05/07

The meteoric climb of the USD/JPY was finally slowed overnight, topping out at 99.68 after a notable run. Since then however, the pair has pulled back during European trading, perhaps signaling a pause to a rally that until earlier seemed virtually unstoppable. At the time of writing, the cross is trading at 99.05/07, down -0.31% from its opening.
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