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Forex: USD/JPY, smart money keeps buying off the 20-H4 EMA

The relentless uptrend in USD/JPY continues to give joy to those brave shallow dip buyers, with the price just snapped back towards 92.50 after a very brief drive a few pips below 92.00.

It is worth noting the ongoing behavioral pattern since Jan 23, by which every time the price approaches the 20-H4 EMA, buyers continue to show up in mass to resume the bullish bias. Today's brief 92.00 encounter was the third retest of the indicator with so far an identical outcome in favour of long players' fortune.

In order to strengthen the case for fresh cycle highs, 92.50/55 is the key resistance to be broken now. During Monday's downside correction, an acceleration in losses was seen through the break of 92.50/55, suggesting sellers will try to defend the territory with the risk of stops hiding around, thus the area should be seen as stops-sensitive. Should 92.50/55 give up, it might cause a buy-back effect to close short position for those shorts having moved to break even, potentially speeding up gains to target 93+.

Forex: AUD/USD above 1.0450 on better data

AUD/USD has just spiked to session and fresh 3-day highs at 1.0453, and rising, once Aus trade balance figures are out showing a smaller deficit than expected at -0.43B vs -0.81B, coming from a previous of -2.79B, though still in the negative since a year ago. HIA house price index has also showed a better than expected figure at +1.6% vs +0.0%, coming from a +0.3% from previous quarter. These numbers add to the case for RBA leaving rates unchanged later on at 03:30 GMT.
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Forex: USD/JPY bounce capped below 92.50

Yen has been weakening again since Tokyo open, with USD/JPY last at 92.45, off session highs at 92.51, bouncing from recent weekly lows at 91.96 printed by early Asian trade. Nikkei index is down -0.89% from yesterday's close, last at 11161 points, off session lows near the 11000 points where it started the day following a gap down at the open.
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