Australian dollar wavers as RBA commits to low rates for longer
The Australian dollar is little changed today as the market reacted to the latest minutes by the Australian central bank. The minutes showed that the bank was optimistic about the economy as the number of cases fell. They expect the unemployment rate to fall faster than anticipated. Still, they believe that more fiscal and monetary support will be needed to accelerate the pace of recovery. As such, the bank pledged to leave rates low until the rate of inflation rose to 2%. Also, the bank pledged to buy as many assets as possible.
The Aussie also reacted to the mixed data dump from China, the biggest market for Australian goods. In a report, the country's bureau of statistics said that industrial production rose by 7% in November. That was a better increase than the previous month's 6.9%. Further, fixed asset investments increased by 2.6% in November from 1.8% in October. However, the country's retail sales rose by 5.0%, missing consensus estimates of 5.2%.
The British pound held steady during the Asian session as traders waited for more Brexit-related headlines. This is after the two sides agreed to hold more talks to prevent a no-deal Brexit. Analysts believe that the two sides will ultimately reach an agreement shortly before the December 31 deadline. Later today, the currency will react to the latest employment numbers from the UK. Analysts expect the unemployment rate to jump to 5.1% in October from the previous 4.6%. They also expect the number of claimants to rise by 50k while the average hourly earnings jumped by 2.2%.
The EUR/USD pair was little changed during the overnight session. It is trading at 1.2158, which is slightly higher than yesterday’s low of 1.2123. On the four-hour chart, the pair is slightly above the 25-period and 15-period exponential moving averages while the average directional movement index has remained steady at ~35. The pair’s RSI is also at the neutral level of about 58. Therefore, since there’s no major event scheduled for today, the pair will possibly remain in the current range.
Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair soared to a high of 1.3445 as traders reacted to the Brexit events. The pair then clawed back some of those gains and declined to 1.3312. It is now forming a bearish flag pattern that is shown in yellow. It is also at the same level as the 25-period and 15-period moving averages while the signal and main line of the MACD have continued to fall. Similarly, the RSI has fallen back to 50. Because of the bearish flag, the path of least resistance for the pair will be lower.
The AUD/USD pair is little changed after economic data from China and the RBA interest rate decision. The pair is trading at 0.7530, which is slightly below yesterday’s high of 0.7575. On the four-hour chart, the pair is slightly above the variable index dynamic average. It is also slightly above the short and longer-term moving averages while momentum and the Average True Range (ATR) have started to decline. The pair will possibly remain at the current range today.